Uncertainty Analysis Online Course

This course provides a comprehensive overview appropriate for the novice, or expert alike, on the use of uncertainty analysis to clearly frame and communicate decision problems, scope options in real-time with rough numbers and evaluate alternatives to bring insight from the analysis. Participants will understand how to describe uncertainty and structure it into our evaluations by first working a pre-defined case model and then applying learnings to structure their own models to efficiently interface with TreeTop. They will learn the fundamentals of generating and interpreting tornado diagrams, decision trees and cumulative probability plots (range of value curves) to compare and evaluate alternatives, gain insight and make informed decisions.  

What’s Covered

• Describing uncertainty via expert interviews and understanding how biases impact uncertainty assessments 

• Gathering inputs for each alternative and incorporating them into the data model 

• Generating and interpreting tornado diagrams, decision trees and cumulative probability plots (range of value curves) to compare and evaluate alternatives, gain insight and make informed decisions 

What’s Provided

• A unique package of reference material and software which enables attendees to become independent practitioners of Decision Quality 

• Course manual with lectures and relevant case studies (digital and or hardcopy) 

• Decision Frameworks Decision Quality Toolbox, a quick reference guide to key workflow steps (digital and or hardcopy) 

• State-of-the-art decision software, DTrio® (for Decision Framing) and TreeTop® (for Decision Trees and Uncertainty Analysis) for a 30-day evaluation period 

Online Course Outline (two, 4-hour modules)

Module 1 – Structuring Uncertainty & Uncertainty Assessment  

• Introduction to uncertainty analysis 

• Structuring the evaluation with influence diagrams 

• Describing and characterizing uncertainty to overcome biases 

• Calibration quiz and expert interviewing breakout  

Module 2 - Evaluating Alternatives with Uncertainty 

• Uncertainty analysis theory and by hand exercise 

• Automating uncertainty analysis with TreeTop 

• Developing tornado diagrams, uncertainty trees and range of value curves 

• Gathering insight from decision trees and decision sensitivity plots 

Module 3 - “TreeTopping” Your Model 

• Develop inputs page for value model 

• Link model to TreeTop and develop uncertainty analysis 

• Compare options and mine for insights