Decision & Risk Analysis Frame 'N Go Online Course

This online course focuses on developing skills to address typical business decisions and uncertainties that can be used and practiced in any industry. New and relevant cases have been built specifically for this course based on common problems many businesses are facing; these are interspersed with real-life problem discussions while learning the workflow and toolset.

Two relevant case studies will be worked in parallel to provide a breadth of exposure to project planning (options include: field development, refining/manufacturing expansion, technology commercialization, pharmaceutical compound strategy).

Example case studies will address common business decisions:

• How should we enter this new market?

• If and how should we expand operations? Should we acquire a competitor?

• Should we continue with conventional technology or implement new technology?

• Should we repair aging equipment now or wait until it fails?

• What is the best go-forward strategy, given initial obligations have been met? 

What’s Covered

• Framing decision problems to agree on the appropriate focus and project alternatives to answer management's key questions

• Assessing key project uncertainties to understand the range of potential project outcomes

• Gaining insight from qualitative and probabilistic analysis to develop hybrid strategies and enable informed decisions

• Communicating the problem definition, frame, and analysis to ensure clarity and realistic trade-off discussions with decision-makers

What’s Provided

• A unique package of reference material and software which enables attendees to become regular practitioners of Decision Quality

• Course manual with standard lectures and relevant case studies (digital and or hardcopy)

• Decision Frameworks digital Decision Quality Toolbox, a quick reference guide to all key workflow steps

• State-of-the-art decision software, DTrio® (for Decision Framing) and TreeTop® (for Decision Trees and Uncertainty Analysis) for a 30-day evaluation period

Online Course Outline (four, 5-hour modules)

Day 1 – Intro to Decision Quality & Decision Framing

• Introduction to Decision Quality, decision framing & uncertainty analysis

• Interactive small group breakout exercise to learn decision framing by-hand

Day 2 – Framing & Qualitatively Assessing Project Alternatives

• Case study breakout 1: Problem definition, issue identification, decision focus, project alternatives

• Case study breakout 2: Developing decision & risk timelines, qualitative assessment of options

Day 3 – Decision-Maker Dialogue & Uncertainty Characterization

• Role of decision maker(s), key meetings & project initiation

• Characterizing uncertainty, addressing biases theory & breakout

• Probabilistic analysis fundamentals: tornado diagrams, decision trees, etc.

• Case study breakout: mining for insight from tornado diagram comparisons

Day 4 – Uncertainty Analysis

• Case study breakout: mining for insight from tornado diagram comparisons

• Case study breakout: decision trees, cumulative probability charts

• Monte Carlo comparison & how to facilitate the Decision Quality process