Decision Analysis for Production Engineers

Production Engineers need a decision making course decided for their operational decision making requirements.
The goal for this workshop is for participants to be well equipped to evaluate their decision problems using decision quality principles and tools easily and practically on a regular basis, and to work closely with their team business analyst/economist on the more complex decision problems requiring robust economic analysis. At the conclusion of this course, each workshop attendee will be able to:

  • Understand the fundamentals of decision quality
  • Frame and model straight forward production engineering decision problems:
    • Clearly define the problem and related issues
    • Define the appropriate decision focus
    • Develop alternative solutions to consider
    • Structure the evaluation of the alternatives, using Decision & Risk Timelines and or Influence Diagrams
    • Understand how to evaluate alternatives, incorporating key risks and uncertainties, by:
      • Constructing Decision Trees and manually populating the end nodes, and
      • Linking an Excel model to decision tree software to generate Tornado Diagrams, Decision Trees and Cumulative Probability Curves (range of value curves)
  • Characterize key risks and uncertainties via uncertainty assessment interviews
  • Interpret the results of uncertainty analysis to gain insight and make recommendations, based on probability weighted outcomes
  • Clearly communicate problem frames and uncertainty analysis results to enable decision makers to make informed decisions
  • Facilitate clarity of action with sound decision maker - project team dialogue

Pre-defined Operational Decision Problems
The following Decision Frameworks pre-defined production operations decision problems will be provided to all course attendees and worked or discussed in the class.

  1. Repair now vs. wait and see
  2. Conventional approach vs. new technology
  3. Single vs. dual completion
  4. Artificial lift optimization strategy
  5. Purchase 2nd workover rig or use 3rd party rig in the event of pump failures
  6. Accelerate drilling new production wells in light of infrastructure readiness

Participants are encouraged to bring their own problems to class to be worked on the afternoons of Days 2 and 3.

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