Hindsight is 20-20. Looking back after major changes in the world, humans tie events together to tell a story to make sense of it. Place yourself at the start of those events and they often remain very difficult to forecast. For example:
- Very few people anticipated the 2008 financial crisis and, though we now feel that we understand the dynamics that caused it, are we able to predict the next downturn?
- Pipeline approvals in North America has been mired in delays far longer than anyone would have ever envisioned when the projects were first proposed. Will this continue or will future regulatory changes result in a clearer guidance on approval timelines?
- The dialogue around climate change dominates the news feeds today where it received only passing mention ten years ago. Will all companies be required to document their climate change strategy?
After a significant change like those above, it is human nature to accept the resulting world as the stable new normal and use it to set our corporate and business unit strategies going forward. Doing so creates blind spots that expose your organization to future political, economic, and technological disruptions.
Engage Decision Frameworks' strategy consultants to expand the organizational view of external uncertainties and potential impact on corporate and business unit strategy with the proven Scenario Thinking process. Pioneered in the sixties by Shell, the Scenario Thinking expands your strategy conversation to enlighten your management team to these blind spots. In it, we envision different possible future worlds and use these to build a business strategy that is more flexible and resilient to the uncertain future ahead and answer such questions as: What is the long-term direction of our organization? Should we develop new business lines to increase our resilience to future change or would this dilute our focus? Should we harvest existing assets or businesses? How should we plan for and react to our competitors’ actions or if new competitors emerge?
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