11/17/2011 12:00 AM Posted by: Jeremy Walker, Decision Frameworks Advisor and Consultant
During the conference, we ran another in a series of tests based around the "Wisdom of Crowds", James Surowiecki's best-selling book. In it he contends that we put too much emphasis on expert opinion and if you solicit a group of individuals in an independent manner and collect data from their responses, you may be very pleasantly surprised by the results. This year's experiment saw an oddly shaped glass container standing at the corner of our booth filled with red, blue, green and yellow gumballs, as along with an unknown number of rubber squishy owls. Visitors were asked to guess the number of gumballs in the container. They were first asked for their P10 and P90 estimates. In other words, they should be 80% confident that the actual number of gumballs should fit between their range. That should be pretty easy to do, right?
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